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Unofficial tool, not affiliated with YouTube or Google. Estimates only: YouTube counts “qualified” views, which can be lower than your raw views.

ShortsGate Pro

Your 2027 pay odds

Twelve pay months, each judged on the 90 days before the 15th. Pro runs your own week-to-week swings forward hundreds of times and counts how often you clear 10M.

Example channel (sample data) · data to 22 Oct 2026

Now: 10.74M in the last 90 days · 81,874 a day lately

10M: the Creator Pool bar

Already over

Your rolling total was above the bar on 22 Oct 2026.

20M: the new YPP Shorts bar

Not by Dec 2027

Crossed in 48% of simulated futures.

  1. Feb 2027

    measured 15 Jan

    28%Unlikely

    90-day total: 4.69M to 15.02M, middle 7.9M

  2. Mar 2027

    measured 15 Feb

    40%Toss-up

    90-day total: 3.27M to 20.7M, middle 8.13M

  3. Apr 2027

    measured 15 Mar

    43%Toss-up

    90-day total: 2.59M to 26.28M, middle 8.44M

  4. May 2027

    measured 15 Apr

    42%Toss-up

    90-day total: 2.23M to 31.99M, middle 8.14M

  5. Jun 2027

    measured 15 May

    43%Toss-up

    90-day total: 1.85M to 42.38M, middle 8.05M

  6. Jul 2027

    measured 15 Jun

    47%Toss-up

    90-day total: 1.62M to 63.15M, middle 8.21M

  7. Aug 2027

    measured 15 Jul

    48%Toss-up

    90-day total: 1.41M to 72.54M, middle 8.83M

  8. Sep 2027

    measured 15 Aug

    48%Toss-up

    90-day total: 1.17M to 79.06M, middle 9.6M

  9. Oct 2027

    measured 15 Sep

    50%Toss-up

    90-day total: 1.07M to 84.1M, middle 9.83M

  10. Nov 2027

    measured 15 Oct

    51%Toss-up

    90-day total: 927K to 84.48M, middle 10.29M

  11. Dec 2027

    measured 15 Nov

    51%Toss-up

    90-day total: 872K to 94.24M, middle 10.45M

  12. Jan 2028

    measured 15 Dec

    52%Toss-up

    90-day total: 863K to 95.5M, middle 10.49M

How the odds are worked out

We start from your last 28 days (81,874 views a day) and play 400 futures week by week. Each week grows or shrinks by a change drawn from your own last 26 weeks (typical swing ±27%), with your trend shrunk halfway to flat so one good month doesn't run away. A month’s odds are the share of futures where the 90 days before its measurement day clear 10M. It is a planning aid, not a promise: YouTube’s own count is final, and it doesn’t know about uploads you haven’t made yet.